Triangular Distribution in Google Sheets
Minimum, most likely, maximum — the analyst's fast estimate.
Interactive Sandbox
10,000 simulations running live in your browser.
When to use it
The Triangular distribution is the fastest way to encode expert opinion into a model. Ask a subject-matter expert for three numbers — their pessimistic floor, their most-likely estimate, and their optimistic ceiling — and you're done. It's not as rigorous as PERT but it's fast, transparent, and easy to explain to stakeholders who don't want to hear about shape parameters.
- Quick project timeline estimates from expert interviews
- Sales pipeline range modeling with discrete scenarios
- Budget line-item uncertainty when limited historical data exists
- Scenario analysis in three-point estimating (PMI method)
How to build it
Native Sheets Formula
=IF(RAND()<(c-a)/((b-a)*(c-a)),a+SQRT(RAND()*(b-a)*(c-a)),c-SQRT((1-RAND())*(c-a)*(c-b))) Using native RAND() requires you to copy this formula 10,000 times manually, which severely lags the browser.
The MonteSheet Way
MonteSheet uses a local browser engine to run 100,000 iterations in 4 seconds without writing a single formula.
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